For some reason my return keeps dropping. I expect this to be because of the armor instance. Those mobs are very likely to big for my setup. I welcome any suggestion anyone might have.
Most people refuse to acknowledge this so you have that going for you at least
Looking at your setup from your OP (ul lr-20 + a203, vigi+5b, gyrofap 14 smuggler, ares perfected) and looking into your activities (mostly armor instance): my immediate takeaway is that you are killing 1-2k hp mobs with a ~32 dps setup. This means that not only will your downswings (variance) feel like they are lasting forever... it means that the oversized mobs have a disproportionate amount of uptime dealing damage to you as well.
If you are going to take that much amount of decay to armor then you should be confident the markup from the mob will cover those guaranteed losses (not all armor decay is returned in loot) - also, are you deflecting every hit with vigi+5b? If so, this is just compounding the problem. Even more so if you are using the gyrofap 14 smuggler with 9.99 health/pec and are not deflecting.
My general advice to anyone in your position would be to acquire an adjusted resto chip (more eco than armor) which restores 159 health/pec. Drop the plates if you are deflecting and use the resto chip, or drop the fap and use the resto chip if you aren't - and to clarify "your position" - I mean anyone that is taking a disproportionately significant amount of armor and/or healing decay on a regular basis.
If the resto chip isn't within your grasp I'd probably say you should reassess and decide if taking so much armor decay is worth what you are trying to accomplish by killing mobs that are so oversized for your weapon.
Based on your setup I'd guess that at least 2-3% of your long-term loss is from disproportionate armor/plate decay vs dps.
Hope this is in some way helpful bk.
gl